The odds for pulling a Serialized card from a random booster pack is generally advertised as less than 1%. Its difficult to find out more than that for your average set, but for the LotR set, we were given a little more information
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I think I would have been less concerned with addressing balance issues from past sets and perhaps have concentrated on putting in some cards that would stand the test of time
Out: In: Focusing on the Graveyard To enhance the deck's effectiveness in fulfilling this somewhat lacking part of our strategy, the added cards in place of Culling Ritual, Greater Tanuki, and Font of Fertility aim to improve this aspect of our deck
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My assumption is that it would fail authenticity guarantee because its not encapsulated